How EV Is Estimated

The same methodology page that ships inside the app — published here so you can judge the math before you pay for it.

The formula

Hourly EV = hands/hour × average bet × net edge

Net edge is your counting advantage minus the house edge for the table's rules. Session EV multiplies hourly EV by the hours you logged.

House edge — published values

The baseline is a 6-deck, S17, DAS, no-surrender, 3:2 game at 0.40% house edge. Rule adjustments use the published effects from the Wizard of Odds rule-variation tables:

• Dealer hits soft 17 (H17): +0.22%
• No double after split: +0.14%
• Late surrender offered: −0.08%
• Blackjack pays 6:5: +1.39%
• Blackjack pays even money: +2.27%
• Single deck (vs 6): −0.46% · Double deck (vs 6): −0.17% · 8 decks (vs 6): +0.02%

For a basic-strategy player who isn't counting, expected loss is simply the house edge times money through the table — this part of the math is accurate to a few hundredths of a percent.

Counting advantage — an estimate

When a counting system is selected, the model adds advantage that scales with the system's betting correlation and the size of your bet spread (logarithmically — going from 1-8 to 1-16 helps less than going from flat to 1-8). Further adjustments:

• Penetration scales the edge relative to a 75% baseline — deeper is better
• CSM sets counting advantage to zero — the count never develops
• Wong in/out raises per-hand edge roughly 40% and halves hands played
• Average bet assumes about 30% of hands are played at elevated counts

Hands per hour

Estimated from game type and table crowding: roughly 200 hands/hour heads-up at a shoe game down to ~55 at a full seven-player table. You can override with actual hands played on any session.

The variance band

The shaded band in the EV vs Actual report is ±1 standard deviation, using the standard blackjack figure of about 1.15 × your average bet per hand, scaled by the square root of hands played. Roughly two out of three outcomes should land inside it.

How much to trust it

House-edge math is precise. Counting EV is an estimate — treat it as roughly ±30%. Real results depend on your exact bet ramp, count frequencies, and conditions, which only full simulation software can model. Use the EV numbers comparatively — 3:2 vs 6:5, hand-shuffle vs CSM, deep vs shallow penetration — rather than as a paycheck forecast. Your actual results over hundreds of hours are the real measurement.

Every actual dollar figure in the app is exact arithmetic on the sessions you logged — no estimation anywhere. $/hour is total P/L divided by total hours for whatever is being grouped.